With Senate majority on the line, Republicans choose chaos
GOP Senate campaigns are ceding swing voters to Democrats as primaries get real weird - especially online.
Instead of reaching battleground state voters with messages about parents' rights, energy independence, or inflation, Republican Senate campaigns are currently defined by fistfights, finance bros, and domestic abuse allegations.
With the Senate majority on the line, GOP candidates from Arizona to Pennsylvania are engaged in wacky disputes that are slowly eroding their chances of winning in November. At the same time, the Democratic candidates for those same seats are running disciplined campaigns with major online persuasion programs already in full swing. We’ll break it down in this week’s FWIW.
But first…
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By the numbers:
FWIW, here were the top-spending political advertisers on Meta platforms (Facebook + Instagram) last week:
Right-wing content factory PragerU was the top political advertiser on Meta platforms last week, and has spent over $1 million on Facebook & Instagram ads over the past month. The ads repeat fringe talking points on trans rights and critical race theory, as well as highlight inflation and rising gas prices. One video ad, about higher gas prices, casually claims the Biden administration is “killing the poor.” By the way, since it’s organized as a 501c3 nonpartisan charity organization, donations to the group are tax-deductible. 😐
Elsewhere on Facebook: We’ve flagged time and time again that Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, organized as Save America has been spending large amounts of money on digital fundraising ads. We saw those efforts pay off this week, as various reports noted Save America has more cash on hand than the Republican and Democratic National Committees combined. Here’s our write-up of how they did it.
Meanwhile, here were the top-spending political advertisers on Google platforms last week, including YouTube:
Last week was a “blue wave” of sorts on Google & YouTube political ads, with Democrats and their allies far outspending their Republican opponents. 🌊 On top of that, ads from JB Pritzker, Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Priorities USA, Majority Forward, and American Bridge were focused on persuading & educating voters, not just grassroots fundraising - which is notable eight months out from Election Day.
Lastly, here are the top political ad spenders on Snapchat so far this year:
Midterm spending toplines:
The midterms are here, and we’ve been keeping a close eye on digital ad spending in key Senate, House, and Gubernatorial contests. For full access to the most comprehensive dataset of midterm digital spending, become a paying subscriber here. >>
Raphael Warnock was the top-spending battleground Senate candidate on digital ads last week (view Senate data).
Stacey Abrams was the top spending battleground Gubernatorial candidate on digital ads last week (view Gov data).
OR-6 was the most expensive swing U.S. House district race online last week (view House data).
New from Campaigner:
Political campaigns have long been defined by blanket TV advertising, with voters’ televisions in October filled with glossy voiceover spots and menacing attack ads. As we’ve mentioned before, that single-channel approach to campaign advertising is slowly starting to change, with campaigns taking a more holistic approach to reaching voters with paid media.
For this week’s Campaigner newsletter, we spoke with Ryanne Brown, Paid Media Director at Democratic Super PAC Priorities USA, about her ideal media mix and how she approaches planning large-scale ad campaigns. Read + subscribe here >>
Get involved in the midterms 🇺🇸
Want to have an impact on this year's midterm elections? Gambit Strategies is working with some of the biggest clients in this year’s midterm elections, and they're hiring for several key roles to support their work.
Republican Senate candidates choose chaos
Instead of reaching battleground state voters with messages about parents' rights, energy independence, or inflation, Republican Senate campaigns are currently defined by fistfights, finance bros, and domestic abuse allegations.
With the Senate majority on the line, GOP candidates from Arizona to Pennsylvania are engaged in wacky disputes that are slowly eroding their chances of winning in November. At the same time, the Democratic candidates for those same seats are running disciplined campaigns with major online persuasion programs already in full swing.
Ohio
In Ohio, where Dem. Rep. Tim Ryan’s candidacy is giving Democrats a small but fighting chance of flipping an open Senate seat, Republican candidates are in an all-out brawl. During a recent debate, two of the leading candidates nearly got into a fistfight, and a third candidate is now blanketing the state with ads highlighting the physical altercation and calling the front-runner a sexist.
While the Buckeye State's TV airwaves are filled with Republicans attacking Republicans, Tim Ryan is outspending his opponents 2:1 on digital ads. That’s a trend we’ve seen in other states, too.
Pennsylvania
The Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary blessed us with one of this cycles’ most bizarre ads this week, with celebrity doctor Dr. Oz (who doesn’t live in PA) accusing his opponent, Dave McCormick, of being an out-of-state, China-loving “finance bro.”
We do love an Always Sunny in Philadelphia reference, and the increasingly weird Republican infighting has to be welcome news to Democratic frontrunner Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who has spent over $1.1 million in online advertising to build his campaign’s grassroots army over the past year.
Georgia
Looking to the Peach State, things are just as chaotic for Republican chances of unseating Sen. Rev. Raphael Warnock in November. Although mostly united behind Trump-backed candidate and former football star Herschel Walker, a GOP primary opponent has launched a wave of particularly nasty ads highlighting credible Domestic abuse allegations.
Meanwhile, Warnock's campaign is already spending on digital ads to reach voters with disciplined, issue-focused messaging.
They’ve spent over $1.5 million on digital ads in the past year, and consistently lead spending week over week with smart ads like these:
“Objectively good news for Democrats”
While we typically just track digital tactics and spending in elections, we should note that this Republican infighting is made much worse by the insane amount of money being spent on negative TV ads at the moment. Just in Pennsylvania, over $40 million dollars has been spent by Republican candidates and their allies ripping each other apart.
“It’s objectively good news for Democrats that Republicans are spending tens of millions of dollars burning in negative messages and tearing each other down in these Senate primaries,” Brad Bainum, a spokesperson for American Bridge 21st Century told FWIW.
Look, it's normal for high-stakes statewide primaries to be competitive, but if Republicans had illusions of running a bunch of polished, disciplined Glenn Youngkin lookalikes on the ballot this year, they must be disappointed. At the same time, we see week after week that Democrats are building a steady online advantage via fundraising and persuasion ads eight months out from Election Day. We’ll see if those on the Right can catch up.