Under pressure
A look at the online campaigns targeting Sens. Sinema + Manchin
Since President Biden took office, few legislators on Capitol Hill have been subject to more attention, lobbying, and ire than Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin. The story goes like this: Democrats have a 50-50 Senate majority, and with Manchin and Sinema opposed to ditching the filibuster, they’re effectively standing in the way of everything from voting rights expansion to DC statehood. Online at least, this has made them public enemy #1 of some liberal advocacy groups and has gained them some rare praise from some conservative politicians, media outlets, and organizations.
In this week’s FWIW, we’ll take a look at the online pressure campaigns aimed at Sinema + Manchin, but first…
By the numbers
Here are the top 10 political advertisers on Google + YouTube last week:
The NRSC and CA Gov. Gavin Newsom’s anti-recall campaign once again led the field spending on Google advertising, with the same campaigns as last week.
Elsewhere on Google, we saw the DCCC is running a poll asking liberal supporters if they want to see Donald Trump elected Speaker of the House. The former President may be exiled to Mar-a-Lago, but ad campaign after ad campaign shows us he’s still a major focus of Democrats looking to raise some grassroots cash.
FWIW, here are the top 10 political advertisers on Facebook + Instagram last week:
The top spender on Facebook political ads last week was Amazon, which continues to set money on fire letting every Facebook user in America know that they pay their employees a minimum wage of $15/hr. In 2021, the internet giant has spent more than $4 million on these types of Facebook ads showcasing their social responsibility bonafides, and nearly $2 million in just the past 30 days. Back in February, VICE called the ad campaign “a PR boon, hiring strategy, anti-union tactic, and move against competitors all in one.”
...and, while the company’s founder was shooting himself into suborbital space this week, Bezos’ pro-climate coalition The Climate Pledge began a massive spending spree on digital ads urging corporate responsibility to fight climate change.
On both Facebook and Google, the America First Policy Institute was a major spender last week. The 501(c)3 pro-Trump nonprofit, chaired by former Trump advisers Linda McMahon and Larry Kudlow, spent over $90,000 on Facebook ads last week, and $32,000 on Google ads featuring Donald Trump speaking straight to camera railing against big tech. The ads are another example of Facebook allowing the former President to keep at least some presence on their platform, despite assurances to the contrary.
And lastly, there was little movement among top spenders on Snapchat political ads last week. Here are the top political spenders on that platform since the Georgia runoff elections in January:
Under Pressure
Since President Biden took office, no two legislators on Capitol Hill have been the subject of so much attention, lobbying, and ire than Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin. The story goes like this: Democrats have a 50-50 Senate majority, and with Manchin and Sinema opposed to ditching the filibuster, they’re effectively standing in the way of everything from voting rights expansion to DC statehood. Online at least, this has made them public enemy #1 of some liberal advocacy groups and has gained them some rare praise from some conservative politicians, media outlets, and organizations.
Since Biden’s inauguration, Manchin has been mentioned in ~2,100 Facebook ads from 85 advertisers, while Sinema has been featured in around ~1,200 ads from 88 advertisers. By comparison, other Senate moderates like Amy Klobuchar and Jon Tester have been mentioned in approximately 770 and 850 ads, respectively. Even Bernie Sanders, whose name is often invoked in ads from across the political spectrum, has been less of a feature of Facebook political ads than Sinema and Manchin.
On Facebook, Youtube, Snapchat, and elsewhere, the ad campaigns targeting Sinema and Manchin range from relatively tame issue advocacy to all-out attacks...and much of the hate mail is actually coming from the Senators’ fellow Democrats. We’ve also found that even though Manchin has received the highest volume of mentions in ads, the messages targeting Sinema are often more direct.
The harshest attacks we’ve seen come from a group called Just Democracy, which since June has spent a whopping $179,996 on the below ads targeting Arizona and DC that state “Kyrsten Sinema is failing us.” They recently announced a partnership with over 20 Arizona-based grassroots groups to spend $1.5 million on Sinema-related ads. We’re certain the Arizona Republican Party loves to see it.
Other major liberal ad campaigns targeting the senior Senator from Arizona lobby her on the For the People Act, American Rescue Plan, drug pricing, and immigration. Some groups like End Citizens United and League of Conservation Voters have thanked her for protecting voting rights, while others have accused her of blocking the same thing. 😂
Here are the Facebook ads mentioning Sinema with the most impressions among Arizonans:
Despite being progressives’ worst nightmare for over a decade, the online campaigns against Manchin from the left have been a little less intense by comparison. The majority of ads mentioning West Virginia’s senior Senator come from conservative groups like the NRA, One Nation, Americans for Prosperity, and the Club for Growth. Those organizations’ predictable advocacy this year has been mostly in opposition to changing the filibuster rules and against the For the People Act.
It’s not just Facebook - these two Senators are feeling the heat on Snapchat too, where progressive groups hoping to reach younger audiences have been advertising on issues from climate change to voting rights.
Progressive nonprofit End Citizens United has been one of the largest spenders on political ads on that platform, dropping over $230k advocating for the For the People Act since January. They’ve targeted 10 states represented by moderate senators, with Sinema in Arizona their biggest target, having spent $30,452 so far. West Virginia is another major focus of that campaign - they spent $19,813 targeting that state, compared to the $18,797 they spent in Georgia and just $10,688 in Pennsylvania.
These types of campaigns, in addition to TV ads, a steady drumbeat of the national and local press, and their newfound fame as crucial Senate swing votes, have slowly increased Google search traffic for both Senators over the past year.
There’s no question that Sinema and Manchin have felt the heat and will continue to do so - but whether these campaigns are having an impact on their positions remains to be seen. Although Sinema is outspoken and on the record as the only Democratic Senator opposed to any changes to the filibuster, we’d bet these types of pressure campaigns have at least pushed other moderate Dems to stay in line - and to keep their real thoughts on the filibuster to themselves.
That’s it for FWIW this week. Be sure to follow us on Twitter for the latest updates throughout the week!