Two Stars, One Nomination, and 10 Million Followers
Also inside: new research on why non-political influencers are the best political messengers, KY Sen. candidate goes heavy on Charlie Kirk ads, and more
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Hey, all 👋👋👋 Lucy here, back for a send. I’ve spent the last few months attempting to learn what a tort is at Georgetown and writing my new newsletter, Open Tabs (and closely tracking every new white man in his late 20s or early 30s that drops in the House race in my home district of NY-12). It’s great to be back with you all :)
And speaking of interesting races, this week, we’re taking a look at the Texas Senate primary, in which two rising Dem megastars (and social media darlings) are duking it out for the nomination in March. This is a stressful one… but also a situation in which I think we’re going to learn a whole lot about what works and what doesn’t on social in 2026.
More on that below, but first…
Digital ad spending, by the numbers:
FWIW, U.S. political advertisers spent about $11.6 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:
The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, AKA Oversight Dems, dropped $64,400 this past week on Facebook + Instagram ads, keeping up the drumbeat of asking folks to follow them to stay up to date with their efforts to release the Epstein files. The ads seem to be targeted at key blue states and areas, including California, New York, DC, Illinois, and Georgia. (Check out a leaked House GOP memo on the files from our own Camaron Stevenson here, and Happy Epstein Files Release Day for those who celebrate!)
Speaking of Illinois, the Black Voters Matter Fund spent $70,300 on ads urging people to tell their aldermen to vote yes on Mayor Brandon Johnson’s embattled budget for the city of Chicago.
Meanwhile, political advertisers spent nearly $2.2 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:
Nate Morris, the MAGA-backed Kentucky Senate candidate who has garnered support from the likes of VP J.D. Vance and Don Jr., dropped ~$72,000 on Google + YouTube ads heavily featuring Trump, as well as Charlie Kirk, who had endorsed Morris.
What if you could raise more in 2026?
Groups like Common Cause, Earthjustice, and Amnesty International are setting themselves up to crush it in 2026 with Civic Shout, and you can too.
On X (formerly Twitter), political advertisers in the U.S. have spent around $12 million on ads in 2025. According to X’s political ad disclosure, here are the top spenders year to date:
…and lastly, on Snapchat, political advertisers in the U.S. have spent around $3.4 million on ads in 2025. Here are the top spenders year to date:
Majority Forward spent ~$1,500 on new Snap ads (which appear to be their only on the platform thus far of all of 2025), taking a swing at Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan.
Two Stars, One Nomination, and 10 Million Followers
As you likely are already aware, there’s a big 2026 battle brewing down in Texas where two young superstars – Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico – are running in the Democratic primary to take Sen. John Cornyn’s seat (which is its own wild situation).
Both Crockett and Talarico are social media darlings who have jumped into the race within the past few months – Talarico announced his run on September 9th, and Crockett entered on December 8th after fmr Rep. Colin Allred dropped out to instead run for the House seat in TX-33. Both Crockett and Talarico face some significant obstacles: despite Dems remaining bullish on Texas in general, no Democrat has won statewide office since 1994 – the longest losing streak that the party has in any state. Needless to say, the pressure is on.
And all eyeballs will be on their race – literally. Both candidates have the benefit of having millions and millions of followers. Here’s a breakdown of their comparative online audiences:
As of Wednesday (12/17), Rep. Crockett had a combined total of 6,293,600 followers across these platforms, and State Rep. Talarico had 4,589,900. TikTok and Instagram were the largest platforms for both, with Crockett clocking in at 2 million on Instagram and 2.2 million on TikTok, and Talarico at 1.7 million on Instagram and 1.5 million on TikTok. These are obviously incredibly strong numbers for each, with Crockett slightly beating out Talarico (with regard to followers) on each platform – interestingly, with the exception of YouTube, where Talarico has 187,000 subscribers to Crockett’s 75,700.
Two other random but good tidbits from the data: I was curious to see what growth may be looking like, especially since Crockett’s entry juiced media attention on the race. As a snapshot, according to InsTrack, this is how many net followers each has gained on Instagram over the last 30 days (11/18-12/17):
And, over on TikTok, according to SocialInsider, Crockett’s average video length is 45 seconds, whereas Talarico’s is 1 minute and 16 seconds (content creators and editors, do with that what you will).
To get a sense of the top-performing content for each, here are the most-liked Instagram videos that each has posted in the last 30 days. Crockett’s top-liked video is her launch vid at 94,000 likes and 897,000 views, followed by her supporting the Prairie View A&M Panthers at 65,300 likes and 696,000 views, and then an AI video of her and Trump as babies at 33,700 views and 476,000 views.
Meanwhile, Talarico’s top-liked Instagram post from the past 30 days is a video on taxing billionaires, clocking in at 136,000 likes and 1.5 million views, then his joining of a Jubilee debate at 80,400 likes and 990,000 views, and then his announcement post for his Senate run at 76,100 likes.
Evidently, both are capitalizing on trends and their strong socials. The first poll for this match-up has Crockett ahead by 8 points – but it very much remains to be seen how their March 2026 primary shakes out.
What if you could raise more in 2026?
Groups like Common Cause, Earthjustice, and Amnesty International are setting themselves up to crush it in 2026 with Civic Shout, and you can too.
More from around the internet:
New research confirms that the most effective political messengers on socials… are the ones who don’t really talk about politics.
New York State Senator James Skoufis will head up the DNC’s new National Youth Coordinated Table, or NYCT, as part of Dems’ effort to win back more high school- and college-age voters.
YouTube finally launched its Create app for Apple users (meanwhile, the green text people have had it for over a year!).
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