The anatomy of a Democratic primary

Ohio’s special election next week has become an online fight for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party

Depending on who wins, next Tuesday’s Democratic primary election for Ohio’s 11th Congressional district will spawn at least a dozen political stories declaring the outcome as either a victory for the Biden or Bernie wing of the Democratic Party. In this week’s FWIW, we take a look at the digital race for that seat, break down some of the online factors that may influence the outcome, and give our take on if it matters at all. 

But first…

By the Numbers

Here are the top political ad spenders on Google platforms nationwide last week:

For the fourth consecutive week, the NRSC and Gavin Newsom’s anti-recall campaign have been the highest spenders on Google ads. Notably House Majority Forward spent $66,900 on targeted YouTube ads last week praising swing-district Democratic House members for supporting the expanded Child Tax Credit. 

Meanwhile, on Facebook, Republican groups continued to outspent their rivals last week. Here are the top political spenders nationwide on Facebook ads from July 18th to 24th:

The RNC has been spending quite a bit recently on supporter acquisition ads, which are next-level spammy, warning supporters if they don’t click they’ll be “accidentally labeled as an anti-Trump liberal.” OK.

Facebook continues to spend an enormous amount of money each week on its own ad platform to highlight its good deeds and push for general tech policy reforms. After recently being criticized by this newsletter and the Leader of the Free World for spreading vaccine misinformation, they’ve spent quite a bit on these ads as a rebuttal.

For more on Facebook this week, we’d highly recommend you check out a new report from our friends at the Real Facebook Oversight Board, which breaks down the company’s impact over the past few months.

Anatomy of a Democratic Primary

Every so often, the national political press zeroes in on a small battle that pits the left-wing of the Democratic party against the so-called establishment. These types of skirmishes typically take place in congressional primaries, and by that standard, there’s no better example than next week’s special primary election for Ohio’s 11th congressional district. Former State Senator and Bernie Sanders’ National Campaign Co-Chair Nina Turner is facing off against Shontel Brown, a Cuyahoga County Council Representative and Chair of the local Democratic Party. 

The lines have been drawn in some predictable places, with high-level progressives like Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez going all-in for Turner, while Hillary Clinton and the Congressional Black Caucus have coalesced around Shontel Brown (albeit a little late). Turner is prominently showcasing Sanders in her ads, while Brown is repeating Biden’s name as much as possible. While the election is likely Turner’s to lose, the race has tightened in recent days, with outside groups flooding the airwaves and the internet to stop Nina Turner. 

Digital spending

When it comes to digital ad spending from the campaigns themselves, it’s not close. Turner launched her bid back in December 2020 and has been spending online to raise grassroots dollars and build momentum for months. Since she launched her candidacy, her team has spent $208,023 on Facebook ads alone, compared to Brown’s $43,515. 

That’s a big difference, but we should note that while about 91% of Brown’s ad dollars in the past 90 days targeted actual Ohioans, only about 50% of Turner’s Facebook ads reached Ohio voters. On Google + YouTube, the spending picture is similarly stark: Turner has totaled $196,600 since launching her campaign, while Brown only recently started spending there, and has dropped around $23,900. 

It sometimes pays to be progressive - Turner’s affiliation with Team Bernie has given her a built-in online fan base of national progressives eager to send her to Congress and stick it to the establishment. She’s spent big nationally to build her list and fundraise from those audiences. 

The themes of her ads have focused on criminal justice reform and Medicare for All, and many, if not most, of them prominently feature Bernie Sanders. They often decry the dark money flooding into the race on behalf of her opponent, and some explicitly state that she’s headed to Washington to make the dreams of the Sanders campaign a reality. 

Looking at Brown’s campaign messaging, the contrast couldn’t be clearer. Her ads repeatedly emphasize how she’s ready to work with President Biden to deliver for Northeast Ohio, prominently feature Hillary Clinton’s endorsement, and they not-so-subtly jab at Nina Turner. 

Outside groups

Despite Turner’s early start and built-in advantages, national centrist dark money groups are attempting to tip the scales against her. Outside groups on both sides have spent at least $120,000 on Facebook and Google ads over the past 90 days. The majority of outside spending has been anti-Turner. 

In Brown’s corner are Third Way, Democratic Majority for Israel, and an opaquely named group called “Protecting our Vote.” Advertising on Turner’s behalf is the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, National Nurses United, MoveOn, and Working Families Party. The anti-Turner groups attempt to reinforce the Bernie v. Biden dynamic of this race, attacking Nina Turner for not adequately supporting President Biden’s agenda, using, well… colorful language. 

Turner’s campaign has responded in kind - nearly every new ad, email blast, and social media post in the past two weeks has mentioned that she is under attack from outside, conservative-backed groups. She’s also tried to shake the image that she won’t work with mainstream Democrats, cutting a new ad this week highlighting her ties to President Obama. 

Acknowledging that digital ads aren’t everything, Brown’s campaign and supporters have outspent Turner on TV ads late in the game. 

It all comes down to t*rnout...

Each campaign seems to be heading into GOTV weekend with a game plan for reaching their voters. Both have surrogates coming in from out of state, are hosting rallies, phone banks, and text banks, and pretty much have the same amount of public events on Mobilize, the Democrats’ primary event & volunteer organizing platform. 

Turner’s campaign is hosting 21 GOTV events on Mobilize between Wednesday, July 28th and Election Day - led by a rally featuring Bernie Sanders, Keith Ellison, Cornell West, and Cori Bush. During the same period, Shontel Brown’s campaign has 22 events up on Mobilize and promotes events with Jim Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus. 

Why it matters

This is a national newsletter, so why do we care what happens in Ohio’s 11th district? The Cleveland Plain Dealer last week actually warned us from reading too much into the national significance of this race. 🤣  However, despite their local qualifications and track records of serving in public office, this election will be seen next week as a barometer of where the Democratic party electorate is in the Biden era - especially if Brown pulls off an upset. The campaigns themselves are even framing their own ads as such - quite literally pledging to work with Bernie and Biden. 

At a time when progressives in Congress are being stonewalled by the likes of Sens. Manchin and Sinema, they need to pick up every safe Democratic seat they can. Especially ahead of the 2022 primaries, next Tuesday’s election is becoming a key test of liberals’ grassroots muscle - and whether they should still be taken seriously.