Mikie vs MAGA: Everything You Need To Know About Tuesday’s Closest Race
Also inside: Adelita Grijalva stumps for the DNC, pleas for gun-control blanket Snapchat, and five horror picks to end spooky season right.
Hello everyone, I’m back. 🤖For those who don’t remember me, I’m Scott - a campaign strategist, content expert, and horror movie superfan (and former horror filmmaker) who’s written FWIWs about the Rockbridge Network, the coming AI election, and the “conservative Cosmo.”
It’s Halloween, and while most people are thinking about costumes and candy, political nerds like me are focused on next week’s election. New Jersey’s governor’s race is shaping up to be one of the most interesting contests of the year, and perhaps, a preview of 2026?? Get ready to dive in.
Plus, for horror fans or anyone who’s horror-curious, I lay out five of my top recommendations for a weekend watch.
More on everything below, but first…
Digital ad spending, by the numbers:
FWIW, U.S. political advertisers spent about $15.2 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:
With Election Day around the corner, Gavin Newsom has been all in on passing Prop 50. Last week, the administration ran informational ads letting people know there is an election, and Newsom’s Yes on 50 initiative ran persuasion ads featuring Pres. Obama, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, and other prominent Democrats. Also last week, the DNC cracked the top 10 list with ads featuring still-not-sworn-in Representative Adelita Grijalva asking “What if I told you that a donation to the DNC could help force Congress to release the Epstein files?” Finally, during this period, the Sherrill campaign spent $22,750 while the Ciattarelli campaign spent $1,439. Very low amounts considering how much they spent on Google.
Meanwhile, political advertisers spent just over $9.4 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:
When comparing spending by state on Google & Youtube, it was:
1 - California, $2.38 million
2 - New Jersey, $2.15 million
3 - Virginia, $1.92 million
4 - New York, $536,000
This maps on pretty well to the top 10 spenders of the week. During this period, the Sherrill campaign spent $132,000 just narrowly missing the top 10. About 90% of SEIU’s spending was in New Jersey and Virginia. The notable exception is John Cornyn’s “Lone Star Freedom Project”, which is running ads like this one tying Trump & Cornyn together.
On X (formerly Twitter), political advertisers in the U.S. have spent around $9.3 million on ads in 2025. According to X’s political ad disclosure, here are the top spenders year to date:
…and lastly, on Snapchat, political advertisers in the U.S. have spent around $2 million on ads in 2025. Here are the top spenders year to date:
Project Unloaded caught my eye this week. It’s a common-sense gun reform organization running ads (like this & this) pushing people to YouSnug.com. Once there, they learn about how gun violence is a leading cause of death for kids and that violence is more common in homes that keep guns.
Mikie vs MAGA
The leaves are changing. Kids are getting ready to trick-or-treat. And somehow, it’s time for another election.
Despite being an “off-year,” Tuesday will feature a number of prominent races. One of the most competitive is New Jersey’s governor’s race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Let’s examine the key dynamics and how they speak to our larger political moment.
First, the candidates:
Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill won her seat in 2018 by flipping a swing district. A Navy veteran and former prosecutor, she won this year’s gubernatorial primary with 34% of the vote in a six-way race. She’s considered a moderate and has a profile that the Democratic party has been eager to support.
Jack Ciattarelli is a businessman turned state assemblyman. This is his third time running for governor, second time as the Republican nominee, and first time with an endorsement from Donald Trump. In 2021, he came within 3 points of defeating incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, which was a real shocker considering that polls had Murphy up by 11 points right before the election.
As of Thursday 10/30, Real Clear Politics shows Sherrill with a +3.6% polling average lead. The race tightened around the end of September, and some polls put this race in a dead heat. For context, between 2020 and 2024, Trump improved his loss margin in New Jersey from -16% to -6%. Meanwhile, Polymarket gives Sherrill an 86% chance of winning, and as it turns out, research shows that Polymarket is surprisingly accurate at predicting world events (i.e. 90% accurate one month out and 94% four hours before.)
So what’s going on? If we take a historical view, both sides have something to be optimistic about. In Sherrill’s favor, Jersey voters typically elect a governor from the opposite party of the previous year’s presidential winner. In Ciattarelli’s favor, no party has held the Jersey governor’s mansion for three terms in a row since 1961.
With historical precedent split, which voting blocs will decide the race? Traditionally, off-year elections come down to turnout. For Ciattarelli, that means replicating Trump’s overperformance with working-class voters, especially Latino men. For Sherrill, it’s about winning back some working-class voters and reassembling her 2018 suburban coalition of college-educated moderates and women. Polling shows that Ciattarelli’s voters are reportedly more enthusiastic, but registered Democrats still outnumber registered Republicans by over 850,000.
So what are the candidates focusing on?
First, you can’t talk politics in 2025 without talking about Trump. He endorsed Ciattarelli in May, and they held a telephone town hall together last Friday (10/24). Sherrill and her PACs have leaned into this support highlighting in ads that Ciattarelli is “100% MAGA.” Meanwhile, Ciattarelli has embraced Trump while trying to create separation on immigration to appeal to Latino voters. But, he’s walking a tight-rope by campaigning with MAGA influencers like Jack Posobiec who suggested Jersey should build an immigrant detention facility called the “Boardwalk Brig.”
Next, both campaigns are focusing on lowering costs. For Ciattarelli, that means lowering taxes and rolling back environmental regulations. His campaign features a number of direct quotes from Sherrill, including this out-of-context moment when she says clean power “will cost you an arm and a leg, but if you’re a good person, you’ll do it.” His ads have also attacked her for struggling to explain how her family’s net worth increased by $7 million while she’s been in Congress. Sherrill’s ads have focused on how Ciattarelli will actually raise taxes and how she’ll declare an emergency to stop utility rate hikes on day one.
Finally, advertising has featured familiar culture-war themes. Ciattarelli’s campaign invested hundreds of thousands of dollars into amplifying a Sherrill quote saying she would “push an LGBTQ education into [Jersey] schools.” Meanwhile, through a PAC, the Democratic Governor’s Association purchased ads tying Ciattarelli to Trump’s healthcare cuts. Including both the primary and the general, over $200 million has been poured into this race, making it the most expensive governor’s race in New Jersey history.
These dynamics unfolding — shifting coalitions, Trump’s shadow, and cost-of-living politics — aren’t unique to Jersey. Across the river, Mamdani’s mayoral campaign has taken a very different approach to crafting a winning Democratic message. Will both Mamdani’s and Sherrill’s pitches translate into wins? Save some candy because whatever happens on Tuesday is bound to be exciting.
Before I sign off, a quick pitch: horror season doesn’t need to end on Halloween! If you’re looking for a break from politics this weekend, here are some of my favorites:
Insidious (2010): This is an underrated classic and one of my favorites. It has a wonderful soundtrack, wonderful scares, an innovative plot, and not too much gore.
The Blair Witch Project (1999): Watching this at age 13 inspired my love of horror. It can be hit or miss for some, but when it came out, this “found footage” horror style was revolutionary. If you don’t like gore but want a scare, this film is for you.
The Evil Dead 2 (1987): As far as I’m concerned, this is THE definitive B-movie horror comedy. Tons of gore. Tons of killing zombies. For horror-lovers, this cult classic is an overall great time.
The Witch (2015): This is prestige horror at its finest. Set at the time of the Salem Witch Trials, it functions both as a terrifying thriller and a fascinating view of a different time. There’s definitely gore and disturbing imagery, but it’s artsy so it hits different.
Talk To Me (2022): I wanted to include a film from this decade, and this immediately came to mind. Talk to Me does a good job incorporating our digital world into a modern-day horror plot. There was only a little bit of gore, plus the film is less scary when you call it by my preferred title “The Spooky Ghosty Hand.”
There are literally so many more I could include. I didn’t include Sinners because you’ve probably already seen it (and if you haven’t, watch it!) Please let me know which of your favorites I missed in the comments.
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