Final digital ad blitz hits Iowa, New Hampshire

Haley seizes Iowans’ internet as Phillips goes big in the Granite State

and

Jan 05, 2024

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Presidential primary season is finally upon us. Despite conventional wisdom saying that a Biden vs. Trump general election is inevitable, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire will still go to the polls in the next few weeks to cast their ballots and pick their party’s presidential nominee. That means residents of those states are seeing an influx of advertising online and off, and their social media feeds are filling up with content from campaigns and PACs trying to win them over.

In this week’s FWIW, we’ll break down who’s spending where in the final countdown to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. But first…

By the numbers

FWIW, political advertisers spent just over $8.7 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:

Will she or won’t she? Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s re-election campaign spent more than any other U.S. Senate candidate on Facebook and Instagram ads over the holiday break. Her team spent $42,500 promoting her work trying to negotiate a border security deal. Despite looking like and acting like a candidate, the Arizona independent has still not announced if she will run for re-election this fall.

Right before we entered this election year, President Biden’s campaign ran hyperlocal Facebook ads targeting voters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (a city that will play a crucial role on Election Day 2024). These ads address how Biden has fixed up specific highways and bridges in the Milwaukee area:

…and in a seemingly desperate bid to be Trump’s vice presidential pick, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and her American Resolve PAC are running ads across Iowa on Facebook and Instagram supporting Trump and inviting Iowans to Noem’s Team Trump event this week. Last spring, we wrote about Noem and her “don’t forget me!” strategy, which… doesn’t seem to be going all that well.

Meanwhile, political campaigns spent $1.1 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:

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Your 2024 digital dispatch

FWIW, here’s how weekly digital ad spending compared between the Trump and Biden campaigns in 2023 (this data includes MAGA Inc, a super PAC supporting Donald Trump).

In all, the Biden campaign spent ~$13.5 million on Facebook, Instagram, Google, and YouTube ads in 2023, while the Trump campaign combined with its Super PAC, MAGA Inc, only spent a fraction of that sum - around $3.6 million.

From around the internet:

Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) got herself into a bizarrely unnecessary internet scandal by posting stock photos of food on social media and pretending that she took them.

The New Republic’s Nina Burleigh wrote an excellent piece about FOX News's power and efforts on the left to combat it. It’s a must-read>>

Last weekend, Facebook suspended, then restored the account of Libs of TikTok, a viral right-wing page, for violating its community standards.

POLITICO has an interesting read on how The Breakfast Club host Charlamagne tha God has transformed politically and now uses his influence to tear down President Biden

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Digital Directors are talking about the new list-growth platform that’s quietly becoming the industry standard. See for yourself >>

Final Digital ad blitz hits Iowa and New Hampshire

Here are the major themes we’re seeing as the days count down to Iowa and New Hampshire:

Haley seizes Iowans’ internet

Pro-Haley groups, including Stand for America, Americans for Prosperity Action, and Nikki Haley’s campaign itself, have flooded Facebook, Instagram, Google, and YouTube in Iowa with pro-Haley content. In the past month, pro-Haley advertisers have outspent her rivals by 15 to 1.

After more than $15 million spent on digital ads in the GOP primary in 2023, Haley appears to be the only person allocating real funds here in the campaign’s final stretch. Haley’s team has also booked the most TV ads in the Hawkeye state, according to the Wall Street Journal.

If polls are to be believed, Haley does not have a strong chance of winning the Iowa caucus, but her campaign hopes to have a relatively strong showing heading into New Hampshire, where they are hoping to fare better.

DeSantis’ digital decline

Meanwhile, it’s unclear what Ron DeSantis is doing. After launching his campaign this year with tens of millions of dollars in Super PAC money and profiles about his massive ground game and sophisticated advertising operation, the Florida Governor appears to be running on fumes.

His strategy has focused on performing well in Iowa, but his team has barely spent money there online in the past month. In New Hampshire, pro-DeSantis forces have just spent around $300 on digital ads in the past 30 days.

Instead, the DeSantis campaign is currently running a few generic acquisition ads targeting donors nationwide, either preparing for a long primary fight beyond the early states or just building a list for elections beyond 2024.

Dean Phillips is really trying

Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN), a longshot candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2024, is doubling down on his decision to challenge President Biden by going all-in in New Hampshire. Pro-Phillips advertisers have spent more on digital ads than any other candidate in the Granite State in the past 30 days:

Most of the pro-Phillips spending comes from “We Deserve Better,” a super PAC backing his candidacy. Here’s one example of what New Hampshirites are seeing:

But Biden boosters are to the rescue in New Hampshire

The main reason why Phillips is focused on New Hampshire is because President Biden’s campaign is not on the ballot in the state, due to the state’s refusal to comply with the DNC’s primary election calendar.

That said, supporters of Biden have launched a write-in campaign to boost his odds of winning the state, and a group called “Granite for America” is buying digital ads to support the effort.

No one knows how this unusual election will shake out, and POLITICO wrote this week about how some strategists are playing the expectations game for what to make of a Biden win or loss in New Hampshire.

That’s it for FWIW this week! This email was sent to 17,940 readers. Help us reach more subscribers by forwarding this week’s issue to your colleagues!