Democrats in Maryland have a big choice to make
A primary election in Maryland next Tuesday could determine the fate of the U.S. Senate. No pressure.
Control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance this November, with Democrats on defense in ruby-red states like Montana and Ohio. Everyone on the Left and Right admits that the map is tough for Democrats—every Democratic incumbent running for re-election needs to win for them to stay in the majority.
That’s why the announcement of former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan's Senate run in deep-blue Maryland in February was a significant development. Hogan has previously been a rare anti-MAGA voice in his party and left office with a shocking 81 percent approval rating among Democrats. If Senate Democrats secure victories in every battleground race but lose to Hogan in Maryland, they’ll lose control of the chamber.
On Tuesday, Maryland Democrats will head to the polls to choose their nominee to take on Hogan. It’s reportedly a tight race between multi-millionaire Congressman David Trone, who represents the Western part of the state, and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, whose political career has been based in the state’s second most populous county east of DC.
Money and endorsements
The campaign thus far has been defined by two things: money and endorsements. On the money front, Trone personally has a lot of it, and he’s spent an unprecedented amount of cash on advertising blanketing the state. His is one of the biggest self-funding campaigns in American history, having transferred over $50 million from his personal bank accounts to the campaign.
In the past 90 days, he’s spent over $1 million advertising on Facebook, Instagram, Google, and YouTube, dwarfing his rivals. Here’s a breakdown of digital spending in the race recently:
However, Alsobrooks is ahead in the endorsement game. She’s got popular Gov. Wes Moore in her corner, in addition to Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller, Sen. Chris Van Hollen, U.S. Reps. Raskin, Hoyer, Sarbanes, and Ivey, former longtime Sen. Barbara Mikulski, and many other prominent Marylanders. She’s also scored the endorsement of the Washington Post and EMILY’s List.
The only real “viral” moment her campaign has had in this slow-moving campaign was the release of this campaign ad, which trotted out a who’s who of everyone who endorsed her.
Little online enthusiasm
Despite the race's competitiveness and critical importance, the two Democrats have failed to build a sizable audience on mainstream social media platforms when compared to Hogan.
Part of it is structural - both Trone and Alsobrooks came on the political scene as Facebook was in decline, and Instagram and X/Twitter now make it harder than ever to grow an owned audience. It is worth mentioning, however, that, none of the candidates have found much use for TikTok, and none of them receive particularly high levels of engagement on Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter. Here’s how their audience sizes stack up against Hogan:
Hogan is coasting
As Democrats are preoccupied with the battle to choose their nominee, Hogan seems to be coasting. Republican donors are showering his campaign with cash as a reward for putting the race in play, and his team is hosting shoe-leather campaign events across the state.
But when it comes to the digital front, however, his campaign isn’t doing a whole lot. Their online ad spending is very low, likely because they’re banking on super PACs and major donors to provide all the fundraising help they’ll need.
Even some of the basics aren’t in place: for instance, we’ve been trying to sign up for Hogan’s campaign email list via the main form on his website for over a month. We’ve been unsuccessful. As far as we can tell, the signup form has been broken for weeks.
Update on that MAGA Inc. ad…
In last week’s issue, we flagged an eyebrow-raising Google/YouTube ad from Trump super PAC MAGA Inc attacking President Biden’s campaign. Shortly after we published the newsletter, the ad was taken down by Google for an undisclosed “policy violation.” Right-wing influencers then caught wind of Google’s enforcement action and spun their followers up into a frenzy. Now, the ad is somehow back in Google’s Transparency Report and has continued running this week.
Digital ad spending, by the numbers:
FWIW, political advertisers spent just over $9.2 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:
Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, facing a difficult path to re-election this fall, launched new ads on Facebook and Instagram last week to make “shrinkflation” a key issue for voters.
Further down-ballot, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is hammering swing-district Republicans with a Facebook boosted news campaign around abortion bans.
Meanwhile, political campaigns spent $3.4 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:
On Google and YouTube, another battleground Senate candidate, Bob Casey (D-PA), is focused on “shrinkflation,” with this new ad titled “Shrinky Dink.” We’re guessing someone in DC must have sent a memo around…
On Snapchat, political advertisers in the U.S. have spent $1.3 million on ads year to date. Here are the top spenders:
…and on X (formerly Twitter), political advertisers have spent over $2.6 million on the platform in 2024. Here are the top spending accounts:
Your 2024 digital dispatch
FWIW, here’s how weekly digital ad spending (Facebook/Instagram, Google/YouTube) compares between the Trump and Biden campaigns year-to-date:
Listen to Grave Injustice
With the U.S. Supreme Court set to decide key cases next month, COURIER is launching a new limited series podcast hosted by Lisa Graves explaining the far-right takeover of the court + the cases they're ruling on in 2024.
The trailer and first episode just dropped - listen + subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
More from around the internet:
According to the Washington Post, the Trump campaign is apparently considering whether or not it should join TikTok. The primary super PAC supporting Trump’s candidacy, MAGA Inc., joined the platform this week.
As part of its First Amendment lawsuit against the federal government’s recently passed divest-or-ban legislation, TikTok is now arguing that they are a publisher, like a media company, and must be treated like one.
Progressive digital firm MissionWired published new research showing an increase in ROI and the importance of SMS fundraising vs. email. Read their report here >>
The Democratic National Committee published a memo outlining its tech, data infrastructure, and organizing plans.
The vibes on TikTok last week:
FWIW, here’s a look at 10 of the most-liked videos mentioning Trump on TikTok in the past week:
The vibes for Trump on TikTok were mixed this week – lots of negatives or positives with very few neutral positions. On one hand, @americafirst617 got a lot of attention on a behind-the-scenes video showing Trump surrounded by fans at the Formula 1 race in Miami. On the other, @hopeyoufindyourdad had a good video attacking Trump’s 2025 policy agenda, and a @thedailyshow video of Jordan Klepper poking fun at Trump supporters at a rally also did well.
Here were some of the most-liked videos mentioning Biden in the past week:
@stephen.grardner.yt got a lot of attention for praising an anti-Biden ad from a pro-Trump PAC that was temporarily taken down by Google due to policy violations. @mark.kaye.show posted a video where both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protestors were angry at President Biden. And on a lighter note, @msnbc had a good video about actor Mark Hamill at the White House.
That’s it for FWIW this week. This email was sent to 20,891 readers. If you enjoy reading this newsletter each week, would you mind sharing it on Twitter or Threads? Have a tip, idea, or feedback? Reply directly to this email.
That Maryland race should be interesting! Thanks for highlighting it
FWIW, the family rewatch of “Justified” on Hulu was full of David Trone arguing that only he can beat Larry Hogan for… reasons. I assume this reflects the campaign’s purchases on cable providers rather than streamers? Top ads on Hulu were Trone, Progressive and that poor “bent carrot” medicine.