Democrats are winning the digital ad wars. Will it matter?
In the online fight for the Senate majority, Democrats crush Republicans in early spending
Week after week, we track political digital ad spending numbers nationwide. While we regularly note which entities are spending the most to influence our politics, many top advertisers are just using ads to reach their own supporters, lobby Congress, or fundraise - not target swing voters with persuasive messaging.
In fact, when it comes to that metric - spending on targeted, battleground state advertising in the midterms online, Democrats running for U.S. Senate are winning by a landslide. In this week’s FWIW, we’ll break down Democrats’ midterm digital advantage, and assess whether it will matter at the end of the day.
But first…
By the numbers
FWIW, here were the top-spending political advertisers on Facebook + Instagram last week:
This week we noticed the Democratic Party of Georgia is using a new Facebook page to run ads attacking GOP Senate nominee and amateur meteorologist Herschel Walker. The page is branded “Peach State Update,” and voters seeing the ads may not realize they’re from the Georgia Democrats. That’s because the ads’ disclaimer is displayed as “Georgia Federal Elections Committee,” which sounds a little more official and neutral than it really is. 😂
The company formerly known as Facebook released a major update to its political ad library yesterday, which we outlined on Twitter here. That led us to do some extra sleuthing around, and we found that Judicial Watch is targeting people interested in Paula Deen, Donald Trump is reaching Facebook users interested in “Major Crimes,” and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is dipping her toes in the 2024 presidential waters.
Meanwhile, here were the top political advertisers on Google platforms last week, including YouTube:
In Arizona’s hyper-competitive Republican gubernatorial primary, American Focus PAC is continuing to attack Trump-backed Kari Lake for having a relationship with a drag queen and then repeatedly lying about it. The group actually found a drag queen (DC’s Brooklyn Heights) to spout conservative talking points and attack Lake on camera:
Meanwhile, Tim Ryan’s campaign for Senate in Ohio continues to spend big on targeted YouTube ads across Ohio featuring a populist pep talk in front of crowds of voters. A new poll out last week found Ryan leading his Republican opponent by 9 points:
… and here are the top political ad spenders on Snapchat so far this year:
Looking for more detailed midterm candidate spending numbers? We provide weekly + historical data in battleground races for premium subscribers every week. Here are links to that content for Senate campaigns and Gubernatorial races.
From across the internet
Content that is shared organically on social media platforms like Facebook can have a much larger impact than paid advertising. Which midterm candidates are receiving the most reactions, comments, and shares on their campaign’s Facebook posts? Here’s a roundup for FWIW premium subscribers >>
What’s happening in South Texas? How will Democrats ever win statewide in the Lone Star state? For this week’s Campaigner newsletter, we interviewed Terry Bermea, Executive Director of Battleground Texas on how her organization is registering voters and building long-term organizing infrastructure. Read + subscribe >>
We apologize for repeatedly highlighting John Fetterman’s campaign, but once again they won the internet last week - this time with a sky banner trolling Dr. Oz in the Jersey Shore, coupled with a cameo video from Snookie.
Bloomberg has a great breakdown of how and why Google is going to allow political emails to go straight to your inbox, bypassing your spam filters. Read more here >>
Democrats are winning the digital ad wars. Will it matter?
Readers of this newsletter are well aware that every week, we track the top digital political advertisers nationwide. Often, conservative advertisers dominate the charts, led by the likes of The Daily Wire, PhRMA, Big Tech, Newsmax, and others. While those quick charts give us valuable insight into which entities are spending the most to influence our politics, many top advertisers are just using ads to reach their own supporters, lobby Congress, or fundraise - not target swing voters with persuasive messaging.
In fact, when it comes to that metric - spending on targeted, battleground state or district advertising in the midterms online, Democrats are winning by a landslide.
Democratic candidates are far outspending Republicans online
Since January 1st, Democrats running in competitive U.S. Senate elections have outspent their Republican opponents by a three-to-one margin online. In all, Senate Democrats have spent around $14 million on Facebook and Google ads year to date, vs. around $4.1 million from Republicans. That’s a staggering deficit for the GOP. Here’s how that spending broke down week over week:
In Georgia, Raphael Warnock has spent six times as much on digital advertising as Herschel Walker. In Arizona, Mark Kelly has outspent all of his GOP opponents combined by an 8 to 1 margin. In state after state, that digital advantage remains the same.
As a result, Democratic U.S. Senate candidates are outpacing their rivals when it comes to fundraising.
Democrats are more likely to be spending on persuasion advertising
These campaigns aren’t only spending on grassroots fundraising ads, either. While small dollar donation appeals do make up a significant portion of most candidates’ Facebook ad spend, we’ve been surprised at Democrats' early investment in online persuasion advertising this cycle.
Candidates from Arizona to New Hampshire aren’t talking about the very online issues that fill the pages of New York Magazine and our Twitter feeds. (Should we say pro-decision or pro-choice!? Latinx or Latino!? Should Joe Biden run again!?) Instead, Catherine Cortez Masto is running ads about securing resources for firefighters. Raphael Warnock has been focused on lowering gas prices and providing high-speed internet. Mark Kelly’s ads talk about bringing manufacturing jobs to Arizona.
It’s as if these candidates are living in a separate political world from the Twitter clown show that has already driven so much coverage of the midterms.
At the same time, leading Republican candidates have largely refrained from this type of advertising. In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz hasn’t spent a dime on Facebook ads since winning his primary election. In Nevada, Adam Laxalt has only run a smattering of fundraising ads featuring Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump. In North Carolina, Ted Budd hasn’t spent much on digital ads, but recently put precious dollars behind a video ad… criticizing Elon Musk.
Democrats are also leading non-candidate outside spending online
Most persuasion-related digital ad dollars at this point in the cycle come from outside groups - PACs and non-profits whose sole purpose is to attack or boost candidates with multi-million dollar paid media budgets. In that area, Democrats maintain a slight, but narrowing digital spending advantage too.
Based on our analysis of year-to-date outside spending in U.S. Senate races, we’ve calculated that groups supporting Democratic candidates have spent $3.87 million this year on Google + Facebook ads, vs. $3.4 million in support of Republicans. Democrats benefit from a wide constellation of organizations spending online - Priorities USA, Majority Forward, Senate Majority Pac, and American Bridge (to name a few), while Republicans have mostly relied thus far on one major outside spender: conservative nonprofit One Nation.
Will it matter?
We could go on and on about the tactics and trends we’re seeing in these races that reinforce our belief that Democratic campaigns are just doing things better this cycle. However, ultimately, campaigns are about so much more than digital ad dollars, and while these signs are encouraging, they’re just one factor leading to victory on Election Day.
Last fall, we also noted that Terry McAuliffe’s campaign for Governor of Virginia was making all the right moves when it came to online engagement - early digital investment, diverse messaging, and experimental online messengers - but ultimately, it wasn’t enough to get him across the finish line.
As the midterm environment shifts closer to election day, Democratic candidates for Senate are well-positioned online to be able to respond to what may come their way - and that’s at least worth something. 🇺🇸