Can Aftyn Behn Flip The Table In This Southern MAGA Stronghold?
Also inside: swing state Dems facing attack ads, outside spending in the TN-7 race, and Big Oil’s new name
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Scott here 👋. This week, we’re heading to Tennessee for one of the most fun political storylines of 2025: a gerrymandered MAGA district is suddenly looking… competitive? It’s a Democrat vs a MAGA Republican, outside money is flying in, and we’re getting a preview of how strong the anti-Trump coalition is heading into 2026. I’ll break down the candidates, the money, the attacks, and why Tennessee Republicans aren’t sleeping as easily as they hoped.
PS - FWIW is off for Thanksgiving. I hope you enjoy your flightless (and/or vegan) dinner!
More below, but first…
Digital ad spending, by the numbers:
FWIW, U.S. political advertisers spent about $10.4 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:
With the Nov. 4 elections behind us and overall political spending down, the American Petroleum Institute jumped into 4th place. They’re running ads through an organization called Energy Citizens, which according to Wikipedia, exists primarily to fight climate change legislation going through Congress. Some of their latest ads emphasize that “all of the presidents in the last 50 years” have called for energy independence, urging Congress to pass permitting reform. Perhaps this is a reaction to Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) threatening to blow up bipartisan permitting reform over the Trump administration’s all out assault on green energy.
Meanwhile, political advertisers spent just over $2.6 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:
Comparing these spending levels to last week, only Lone Star Freedom Project and the American Action Network would have made it into the top 10. For a refresher about the American Action Network, they’re an outside spender closely associated with the House Republicans. Last week, they ran ads attacking swing state Democrats including Greg Landsman and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. The accusation? Calling out fascism and voting against funding for ICE and law enforcement. Do voters understand that we govern through omnibus?
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On X (formerly Twitter), political advertisers in the U.S. have spent around $11.1 million on ads in 2025. According to X’s political ad disclosure, here are the top spenders year to date:
…and lastly, on Snapchat, political advertisers in the U.S. have spent around $2.8 million on ads in 2025. Here are the top spenders year to date:
Can Aftyn Behn Flip The Table In This Southern MAGA Stronghold?
November’s election day was huge. Democrats of every stripe won races, and the anti-Trump coalition turned out with force. But as some conservatives pointed out, many of those wins came in blue states. For the final test of 2025, we’re heading to Middle Tenneseee to see how much things have shifted since Trump’s 22-point victory a year ago.
Let’s start with the basics. The district is big; it includes parts of Nashville, as well as rural farmland that extends to the Kentucky and Alabama state borders. Nashville is known for being a music industry hub, but what’s less known is that the district and area are home to MAGA influencers like Brett Cooper, Candace Owens, and Ben Shapiro, and GOP officials like Gov. Bill Lee and Sen. Marsha Blackburn.
This is the first competitive race in this district since Tennessee Republicans created it by cracking a Nashville Democratic seat. The candidates are MAGA Republican Matt Van Epps and progressive Democrat Aftyn Behn. Election Day is December 2nd and the latest polling has Van Epps up by 8%.
That sounds like a comfortable lead, but under the hood, there are warning signs for Van Epps.
Last week, Cook Political Report shifted its rating from ‘Solid GOP’ to ‘Likely GOP,’ citing concerns over low Republican base enthusiasm. (Was this made worse by Gov. Lee scheduling the election the Tuesday after Thanksgiving to bury it? Who’s to say.)
Meanwhile, local and national Democrats have jumped in, excited by the prospect of an end-of-year upset. To the dismay of some who want to keep the race local, Vice President Kamala Harris and DNC Chair Ken Martin visited the district, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett appeared virtually with Behn. Plus, the liberal Your Community PAC announced a $500k blitz of mailers and ads featuring Van Epps as a puppet. Trump-world responded in kind, jumping in with a seven-figure ad buy and setting up a “tele-rally” featuring Trump and Van Epps.
With this context, how are the candidates pitching themselves and framing each other?
Van Epps is leaning into his military background and allegiance to President Trump. He served 9 combat tours in Afghanistan and is pitching this campaign as his “new mission” to help the president. By his own account, he’s with Trump “100%” including joining him in flip-flopping on how to handle releasing the Epstein files. From Van Epps’ POV, Trump’s late endorsement helped him win his crowded Republican primary, so he’s all in. His offensive playbook features standard MAGA attacks: framing Behn as a radical who’s anti-law enforcement and pro permanent sex-changes for minors. What a time.
Meanwhile, Behn isn’t running to the center. Instead, she’s running an unapologetically progressive campaign centering economic populism. Her background is as a state representative, a social worker and a political organizer, and her slogan is ‘Feed Kids. Fix Roads. Fund Hospitals.’ She has taken positions including eliminating Tennessee’s grocery tax, legalizing cannabis to fund highway repairs (or “pot for potholes”), and not taking money from corporate pacs or AIPAC. Fit for 2025, she regularly posts direct-to-camera videos discussing the race and key issues.
Financially, Van Epps is clearly in the stronger position. Even before MAGA Inc’s announcement, Van Epps had raised double what Behn had raised ($402k vs $188k). Plus in his primary, Van Epps was supported by an ad buy of over $2.5 million from independent groups funded by billionaires like Jeff Yass. Van Epps brought in so much outside money that his primary opponent recently was on local news talking about it.
Ultimately, Polymarket gives Behn around a 10% chance of flipping the seat. But if you’re looking for some hopium, Democrats were on the positive end of polling error in the November 4th elections (for once). Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill outperformed her polls by eight points, and Virginia Democrats outperformed their polls by at least four points. Also, Dems have been outperforming Harris’s 2024 numbers by an average of 18 points in this year’s congressional special elections.
Will Republican rule survive like it did with the two special elections in Florida? Or will Democrats pull off a massive upset? With only 11 days until Election Day, stay tuned – it’s bound to be exciting.
Add donors to your list before year-end comes knocking
Join groups like Common Cause, Earthjustice, and Amnesty International who are leaving nothing to chance with Civic Shout. See how you can, too.
We’re excited to announce speakers Rashad Robinson, Nourbese Flint, and Melissa Morales for the Movement Building for This Moment panel at COURIER’s Courage > Cowardice live event!
Join us Thursday, December 11 in DC from 6–9 PM as we gather creators, leaders, organizers, and advocates to celebrate the courage to continue showing up. We’ll have food, drinks, and an open bar reception.
RSVP → Courage > Cowardice: DC Event
VIP tickets available for exclusive COURIER merch, reserved seating, and the chance to submit a question.
Space is limited. More speakers to be announced soon!
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