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Battleground Virginia

The state of online spending in Virginia’s competitive state legislative elections

Lucy Ritzmann

and

Kyle Tharp

Sep 8, 2023

This November, voters in Virginia will head to the polls in competitive legislative elections that could hand Republicans total control of state government for the first time in years.

In previous off-year races (2017, 2019, and 2021) Democrats invested heavily in online campaign tactics, and a flood of DC-based progressive organizations and activists descended on the state to knock doors and reach voters. But this year, Republicans have been buoyed by Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s political operation and have gone on offense to win back majorities in the House of Delegates and State Senate.

We’ll break down online spending in Virginia + more in this week’s FWIW. But first…

By the numbers

FWIW, political advertisers spent just over $7.9 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:

Tennessee State Rep. Gloria Johnson, who earlier this year was one of the “Tennessee Three” targeted by Republicans for their stand against gun violence, announced she is running for U.S. Senate against Sen. Marsha Blackburn in the Volunteer State next year. Her campaign launched on Tuesday with a wave of online fundraising ads, with some leaning into her “Tennessee Three” notoriety:

Tennessee Democrats have been in the political wilderness in the ruby-red state for many years, but Johnson - who is an expert campaigner - will provide the party with a much-needed shot in the arm and will give voters a real choice against Blackburn’s extremism. Blackburn, in turn, posted a direct-to-camera video on Twitter calling her new opponent “a threat to our way of life.” OK, Marsha.

Meanwhile, political campaigns spent $1.4 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:

Blaze Media, a conservative media conglomerate, is running a series of bizarre ads addressing hot topics in the 2024 election. The ad that they seem to be putting the most $$$ behind is a “campaign ad” for a satirical candidate called James McDice.

…and on Snapchat, political campaigns and organizations in the United States have spent around $1.6 million on advertising in 2023. Here are the top ten spenders YTD:

Your 2024 digital dispatch

FWIW, here’s how much money likely or confirmed 2024 presidential candidates have spent on Facebook + Google ads to date (1/1 - 9/2):

Ron DeSantis’ allied Super PAC is suspending its on-the-ground campaigning in several key states

The Biden campaign is reaching specific groups of voters in swing states with new ads during the NFL kickoff. They also announced several key staff hires.

From around the internet:

Google will soon require advertisers to disclose the use of AI in political ads, the company announced.

Inflation has apparently hit political campaign merch, Yello’s Hunter Schwarz reports

Most polls obviously survey registered or likely voters in order to understand voter attitudes toward candidates and elections. But here’s an interesting look at how non-voters or unlikely voters feel about a Trump-Biden rematch.

Remember that high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year that was won by liberal justice Janet Protasiewicz? Republicans are trying to override the will of the people and impeach her from office, just 5 weeks after she was sworn in.

Battleground Virginia

This November, voters in Virginia will head to the polls in competitive legislative elections that could hand Republicans total control of state government for the first time in years.

It’s unclear how many national Democrats have come to terms with the stakes of these elections: if Republicans sweep across the board and reclaim a trifecta in state government, the once moderately blue commonwealth could take a hard Right turn for several years to come.

FWIW, here’s a look at political ad spending on Facebook and Instagram in the state over the past month:

As you can see, Republicans and their allied groups are outpacing Democratic spending on these platforms - which should set off a few alarm bells on the Left. The top spender in recent weeks has been the Republican Party of Virginia, which is running ads asking Republicans to “secure their vote” by requesting absentee ballots. They’re also up with bilingual ads touting Youngkin’s economic agenda.

The Republican establishment in the state is also getting a boost from the Koch Brothers’ network. Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity is aggressively promoting several Republican candidates running in the most competitive districts.

Much of Democrats’ digital ad support on Facebook and Instagram comes from Freedom Virginia, a progressive outside group. That organization’s ads shore up specific candidates and cite Democrats’ policies with poll-tested messaging like giving “Virginians the tools they need to thrive.”

Meanwhile, on Google & YouTube, spending has heavily favored Democrats:

The top political advertiser in the state on Google and YouTube has been the House Democratic Caucus, which is very wisely running YouTube ads targeting GOP candidates and tying them to a potential statewide abortion ban. Here’s an example:

At the same time, the House Republican Campaign Committee isn’t exactly staying away from the abortion issue - they are running Search and video ads accusing Democratic candidates of supporting “elective abortion until the time of birth.”

One thing we should note: even though it’s the year of our lord 2023, all of this digital ad spending remains a drop in the bucket compared to the millions spent on old-school tactics like television, radio, and direct mail.

Recent polls have shown that Virginians are evenly split on which party they favor to control the House and Senate, and investments in mobilization in the campaign’s final weeks could make the difference. The Washington Post reported this week that President Biden has personally made sure that the Democratic National Committee is increasing its investment in the state’s elections - to the tune of $1.5 million.

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