The anatomy of an anti-Trump ad

These are the online attacks that Democrats hope will cement a Trump loss

Kyle Tharp

and

Lucy Ritzmann

Oct 18, 2024

FWIW, this week’s newsletter is sponsored by Civic Shout

Online and on television, Democrats have been running attack ads against Donald Trump for eight years. Since 2016, Democratic super PACs and campaigns have tried everything - from mocking his personal appearance, highlighting his offensive remarks, attacking his business and government mismanagement, exposing his treasonous behavior, and spotlighting a host of extreme policy positions. All this in an effort to make him as unpopular as possible among key segments of the electorate.

Despite the years of organized efforts and over a billion dollars spent against him, “Teflon Don” is now running a margin-of-error race three weeks out from his third Election Day as the GOP nominee for president.

As the campaign races to Election Day, we’ve seen the Harris campaign and a constellation of progressive outside groups hone in on a few key anti-Trump messages in their advertising online. Here’s what we’re seeing Democrats focus on:

Trump supports a national abortion ban, Republicans oppose IVF

This will no doubt be the defining issue of the campaign for Democrats. The issue of reproductive freedom has powered Democratic victories for the past several years, and the Harris campaign and others have been hammering Trump on the issue for months.

Here’s an example from from EMILY’s List’s Women Vote of the types of ads swing-state voters are seeing:

Here’s another example from Arizona, and here’s one from Reproductive Freedom for All featuring Trump bragging about getting rid of Roe v. Wade. Also, voters aren’t just seeing video ads: The Harris campaign has long been running a sophisticated boosted news program, flooding voters’ Facebook feeds with articles about Trump’s extreme abortion positions.

And another key way Democrats are attacking Trump on reproductive freedom is on the issue of IVF. This recent YouTube ad from the Harris campaign makes the contrast between herself and Trump – who is now falsely trying to paint himself as “the father of IVF” – clear.

Trump supports the rich, not working people

Pro-Harris Super PAC Future Forward has focused much of its ad messaging this year on the economy, lowering costs, and taxation. They recently released an onslaught of new ads featuring working Americans slamming Trump for his comments telling billionaires he’ll cut their taxes. You can view some of those ads here, here, and here.

Trump will cut Social Security and Medicare

This was a line of attack deployed by Biden when he was the Democratic candidate and has proven effective for Democrats cycle after cycle. Social Security and Medicare are deeply popular with wide swaths of the electorate, and Trump’s past positions on cutting the programs are still being highlighted by Harris. Here’s one ad from the Harris campaign:

All of these types of specific, policy-focused ads have hundreds of millions of dollars behind them and are a contrast to how the campaign is playing out in the press and on social media.

For example, viral content about Social Security or taxation on platforms like TikTok is virtually non-existent and is usually not mentioned in the day-to-day coverage of the race on CNN. Instead, cable news watchers are flooded with conversations about Trump’s personal drama and bizarre remarks… which are things that don’t often feature in Democrats’ multi-million dollar advertising campaigns and probably won’t move many voters’ attitudes against him.

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Digital ad spending, by the numbers:

FWIW, political advertisers spent just over $41.9 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:

A conservative group with ties to Elon Musk is running a wave of fake pro-Harris ads from a Facebook page called “Progress 2028.” They are likely targeting conservative-leaning voters with ads that claim Harris supports mandatory gun confiscation and banning fracking. It’s insane that Facebook allows deceptive campaigns like these to run, but Progress 2028 has already spent $150,000 in the past week, and there’s no sign of them slowing down. Read more about the effort from Open Secrets here.

The pro-Trump bro-y content squad the Nelk Boys are running new ads telling people to “send the vote.” These ads seem to be largely targeting young men in states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, where the campaign hopes they’ll turn out big for Trump and Vance.

…and right-wing fake news sites have continued to spend money on Facebook ads ahead of Election Day. The latest network is affiliated with the conservative Lincoln Media Foundation (not to be confused with the Democratic Lincoln Project), including at least 7 Facebook pages that resemble news in swing states. A few are “The Steel Signal”, “Milwaukee Mainstay” “True North News”, and “Title Town Times”. All are currently running ads targeting swing voters with the intent of damaging Harris’ candidacy.

Meanwhile, political campaigns spent $55.3 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:

Pro-Trump Preserve America PAC continues to push the insane “sex changes on illegal immigrants” thing that Trump stated during his debate. These types of ads are being featured online and gleefully shared in MAGA circles but also have been dominating the TV airwaves in battleground states. ICYMI, the New York Times published a piece this week going deep into the issue.

Over in Maryland, where the country’s least-discussed high-stakes Senate race is underway, the pro-Hogan super PAC Maryland’s Future spent $353,000 on YouTube ads attacking the Democratic candidate, Angela Alsobrooks.

On X (formerly Twitter), political advertisers in the U.S. have spent $14.2 million on ads year to date. Here are the top spenders:

While we haven’t seen a lot of Democrats invest heavily into X/Twitter ads, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell – who is taking on Sen. Rick Scott in Florida – has spent more than any other Democrat this year on the platform, with a total 2024 spend of $277,971. Her team is mostly using these ads for grassroots fundraising.

…and lastly, on Snapchat, political advertisers in the U.S. have spent $13.4 million on ads year to date. Here are the top spenders:

It’s been yet another election cycle where Republicans have been pretty M.I.A. in terms of Snapchat advertising. This week, Kyle spoke to the New York Times about the GOP’s lack of investment there.

Presidential head-to-head

FWIW, here’s how weekly digital ad spending (Facebook/Instagram, Google/YouTube) compares between the Trump and Harris (formerly Biden) campaigns year-to-date:

“We saw over 200% ROAS in two months!”

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New TikTok data + charts

This week, we took a look at some of the biggest (and most viral) attacks against Trump on TikTok. We have the analysis of what exactly those videos are about and much more in this week’s FYP newsletter 👇

See the latest TikTok data + analysis >>

More from around the internet:

The Washington Post confirmed that Instagram – and several other major social media platforms – seem to be deprioritizing content that uses the word “vote” :(

And speaking of the Post, their Tech Help Desk section also put together a piece that includes everything we know thus far about so-called “shadowbans” on social media and how they work.

Republican influencers and politicians are spreading a fake headline from The Atlantic claiming that Harris should “steal the election”. The Atlantic then had to publish a press release debunking the lie.

The Harris campaign is using WhatsApp to reach voters (with a specific focus on Latino audiences).

Democratic fundraising giant ActBlue has kicked off several leading “scam” PACs from its platform.

Trump was mocked by Twitter elites for standing on stage for 30 minutes while an odd soundtrack of his favorite songs played. His campaign, in spin mode, is calling it the “Trump Fall Concert Series.”

That’s it for FWIW this week. This email was sent to 23,901 readers. If you enjoy reading this newsletter each week, would you mind sharing it on Twitter or Threads? Have a tip, idea, or feedback? Reply directly to this email.