A three-way digital desert brawl

It’s all fun and games until Kari Lake becomes a U.S. Senator

A chaotic, three-way desert brawl is taking shape online and off in the nation’s most important swing state. 

In this week’s FWIW, we are breaking down the online moves we’ve seen in next year’s Arizona U.S. Senate race - who is building the largest or most engaged followings online, who’s spending heavily on digital ads, and more. But first…

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By the numbers

FWIW, political advertisers spent just over $8.9 million on Facebook and Instagram ads last week. These were the top ten spenders nationwide:

The Biden campaign was once again the top-spending political advertiser nationwide on Facebook and Instagram last week. They’re running swing-state persuasion video ads targeting Black voters, in addition to a bunch of other video ads touting job creation and lowering costs. 

What kind of ads are working to turn Republicans against Trump? Apparently, not many of them. According to a new report in the New York Times, at least one anti-Trump organization is struggling to find any messages that move the needle against the former President among GOP primary voters. 

Meanwhile, political campaigns spent $2.1 million on Google and YouTube ads last week. Here were the top ten spenders nationwide:

MAGA Inc, the Super PAC supporting Donald Trump’s campaign, spent heavily on Google and YouTube ads last week. The group has historically stayed away from digital advertising and focused on television, but that appears to be changing. Almost all of the group’s ad spend was used to target Iowa with this video:

In neighboring Wisconsin, progressive advocacy group A Better Wisconsin Together released a slew of video ads railing against state Republicans for their cynical efforts to impeach State Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz before she has cast a single vote.

…and on Snapchat, political campaigns and organizations in the United States have spent around $1.7 million on advertising in 2023. Here are the top ten spenders YTD:

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Your 2024 digital dispatch

FWIW, here’s how much money the 2024 presidential candidates have spent on Facebook + Google ads to date (1/1 - 9/23):

…and here’s how weekly digital ad spending compares between the Trump and Biden campaigns:

• Forgot to watch Wednesday night’s Republican debate? Here’s a 90-second recap. 

• The Biden campaign launched a new @BidenHQ war room account on Twitter/X and Threads this week. They’ve already been blasting out some absolute bangers. 

• Chris Christie dubbed Trump “Donald Duck” after he skipped the debate… and Trump said the joke was so bad it was disqualifying.

• Nikki Haley wasn’t going to let Vivek Ramasamy off the hook for joining TikTok this month.

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From around the internet:

• FOX apparently slashed advertising rates for the second GOP debate this week because they assumed no one was going to tune in. According to Nielsen, viewership was down 25% over the first debate. 

• X (formerly Twitter) CEO Linda Yaccarino gave a fascinating interview with CNBC’s Julia Boorstin at the Code Conference this week. It’s worth a watch >>

• A government shutdown just weeks before Election Day 2023 would be very bad news for Glenn Youngkin and VA Republicans, according to AXIOS. 

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The White House explains the shutdown

The White House digital team has launched a full-court press of content explaining what's at stake if the federal government shuts down this weekend. Over the past few days, @whitehouse accounts have shared straight-to-camera videos from high-level administration officials breaking down the negative impacts of a government shutdown on their respective sectors of the economy. 

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Deep dive: A three-way digital desert brawl

On Monday, NBC News published a leaked memo from Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s re-election campaign that all but confirmed that she’s, well… running for re-election. “Kyrsten will win Arizona,” the document asserted in big letters at the top of the page.